World Series Game 5 Preview: Blue Jays vs Dodgers
Series Context: Everything on the Line
The 2025 World Series has delivered everything baseball fans could ask for. After four games, we're deadlocked at two games apiece, and Game 5 represents the pivotal swing game that could define this championship. The winner heads back to Toronto with a 3-2 series lead and a chance to clinch at home in Game 6. The loser faces a must-win situation with their season on the brink.
This is the first rematch of starting pitchers in this series. Blake Snell and Trey Yesavage both got the ball in Game 1, where Toronto stunned Los Angeles 11-4 at Dodger Stadium. Both pitchers struggled in that opener, and now they get a chance at redemption in the most important game of the series so far.
Pitching Matchup: Game 1 Rematch with Adjustments
Blake Snell (LAD) — 5-4, 2.35 ERA, 72 K in 61.1 IP
Game 1 Performance: Five innings, 8 hits, 5 ER, 3 BB, 4 K
Snell's Game 1 start was his worst outing of an otherwise dominant postseason. Before that game, he had pitched to a 0.86 ERA with 28 strikeouts in 21 innings across three playoff starts. His changeup had been absolutely lethal, generating whiffs at a historic rate and keeping hitters completely off-balance.
In Game 1, everything that could go wrong did. Snell surrendered eight hits including multiple extra-base knocks, walked three batters, and never found the rhythm that made him so effective throughout October. The Blue Jays jumped him early and never let him settle in. His command was spotty, his changeup lacked its usual bite, and Toronto's aggressive approach caught him off guard.
Why He'll Be Better in Game 5:
- Adjustments: Snell and the Dodgers' coaching staff have had time to analyze what went wrong. Expect refined pitch sequencing and better use of his devastating changeup.
- Track Record: Prior to Game 1, Snell was the most dominant pitcher in the playoffs. His three previous starts showed an elite pitcher at the peak of his powers.
- Changeup Weapon: When Snell's changeup is on, it's virtually unhittable. The velocity separation from his fastball and the late tumbling action create swings and misses even when hitters know it's coming.
- Playoff Pedigree: Snell is a two-time Cy Young Award winner who has thrived in high-pressure situations throughout his career.
Trey Yesavage (TOR) — 1-0, 3.21 ERA in postseason
Game 1 Performance: Six innings, 7 hits, 4 ER, 2 BB, 5 K
Yesavage earned the win in Game 1, but it wasn't pretty. The rookie right-hander showed flashes of brilliance mixed with concerning moments of vulnerability. He gave up seven hits and four earned runs, surviving largely because Toronto's offense exploded for 11 runs and provided him with a massive cushion.
The 24-year-old impressed with his composure on baseball's biggest stage, but the Dodgers clearly had success against him. Los Angeles hit him hard when they squared up pitches, and Yesavage's command wavered at critical moments. He escaped several jams but also benefited from some fortunate sequencing.
Concerns for Game 5:
- Inexperience: This is only Yesavage's second career postseason start. The pressure of Game 5 in a tied World Series at Dodger Stadium is a massive ask for a rookie.
- Game 1 Success Misleading: The 11-4 final score masked Yesavage's struggles. The Dodgers hit him hard and will be more aggressive this time.
- Platoon Disadvantage: The Dodgers can stack left-handed bats against Yesavage, and their lineup has the depth to exploit any mistakes.
- Short Rest Issues: This will be Yesavage's first time pitching on regular rest in October. Fatigue and execution could be factors.
Offensive Trends: Tale of Two Lineups
Blue Jays Offense: Riding Vlad Jr.'s Historic Run
Toronto's offense has been a mixed bag this postseason, but Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been nothing short of spectacular. His .419 average and seven home runs have provided the Blue Jays with consistent production from the cleanup spot. When Vlad gets on base, the entire lineup elevates.
Beyond Guerrero, the Blue Jays have gotten timely contributions from Bo Bichette, George Springer, and Daulton Varsho. However, the lineup has shown a tendency to go quiet for stretches, and they'll need more than just Vlad Jr. to carry them through Game 5.
Dodgers Offense: Struggling to Find Rhythm
Los Angeles' .216 team batting average this postseason is a major red flag. This is a lineup that was built to mash, featuring Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and Will Smith. Yet they've struggled to string together quality at-bats consistently.
The Dodgers' approach at the plate has been overly aggressive at times, leading to quick innings and putting extra pressure on their pitching staff. When they do make contact, they've hit the ball hard, but the lack of baserunners and clutch hitting has been a persistent problem throughout October.
Bullpen Analysis: Both Teams Running on Fumes
Blue Jays Bullpen: Cracks Starting to Show
Toronto's bullpen has a 5.52 ERA this postseason, and the workload is catching up to them. Jordan Romano, Chad Green, and Jordan Hicks have been leaned on heavily, and fatigue is becoming a real factor. The Blue Jays need Yesavage to eat as many innings as possible because asking this bullpen to cover four or five innings in a tied World Series game is a risky proposition.
John Schneider has managed his relief corps aggressively, but at some point, the well runs dry. If Yesavage can't give Toronto six quality innings, the bullpen's vulnerabilities will be exposed in the highest-leverage situation imaginable.
Dodgers Bullpen: Better, But Not Elite
The Dodgers' 4.88 bullpen ERA isn't much better than Toronto's, but they have more depth and more reliable high-leverage options. Evan Phillips, Alex Vesia, and Daniel Hudson have been Dave Roberts' go-to arms, and they've mostly delivered in critical moments.
Los Angeles' advantage is their ability to go to multiple quality arms in the late innings. They don't have one dominant closer, but they have five or six pitchers who can get big outs. That depth becomes crucial in a tied World Series when every pitch matters.
Betting Odds & Market Analysis
Market Movement & Sharp Action
The Dodgers opened as -207 favorites and have seen slight movement to -203, indicating some sharp money on the Blue Jays at plus-money. The public is heavily on Los Angeles, with over 70% of moneyline tickets backing the home favorite. However, the line movement suggests that sharps see value in Toronto's offensive firepower and Guerrero Jr.'s historic hot streak.
The total opened at 8 and has remained steady, with balanced action on both sides. The umpire assignment (to be announced) and weather conditions at Dodger Stadium will be key factors for total bettors.
Key Betting Angles & Trends
Trends Favoring the Blue Jays
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s Dominance: Hitting .419 with 7 HR this postseason — when a player is this locked in, you ride him until he cools off
- Game 1 Success: Toronto won 11-4 in the first meeting with these same starters, and Yesavage got the win
- Underdog Value: +168 is a strong price for a team with an offensive advantage and a hot hand
- Road Warriors: Blue Jays went 5-2 on the road this postseason before World Series, showing ability to win in hostile environments
- Snell's Game 1 Struggles: Gave up 8 hits and 5 ER — Blue Jays have seen him and had success
Trends Favoring the Dodgers
- Home Field Advantage: Dodger Stadium in October is one of baseball's toughest road venues
- Snell's Bounce-Back Potential: Before Game 1, he had 0.86 ERA with 28 K in 21 IP — elite pitcher likely to rebound
- Bullpen Depth: Dodgers have more reliable high-leverage arms to cover late innings
- Yesavage's Inexperience: Rookie making his second career playoff start in biggest game of his life
- Talent Advantage: On paper, the Dodgers have the superior roster with multiple MVP-caliber players
The Betting Verdict
This is one of the toughest handicaps of the postseason. Both teams have clear advantages and exploitable weaknesses. The Dodgers have the better starting pitcher (when Snell is on), the better bullpen, and home field advantage. But the Blue Jays have Vladimir Guerrero Jr. playing at a historic level, plus they've already beaten this exact pitching matchup once in this series.
If forced to pick a side: Lean Blue Jays +168 in small units. Guerrero Jr.'s hot streak is not sustainable long-term, but in a single game, riding the hot hand makes sense. The +168 price provides value, and Toronto has shown they can beat this version of the Dodgers.
Best bet consideration: Over 8 runs (-110). Both starters struggled in Game 1 (combined 12 ER), both bullpens are fatigued and struggling (5.52 and 4.88 ERAs), and the pressure of Game 5 often leads to mistakes. The offenses may break through more than the market expects.
Final Prediction
This game will be decided in the 6th-8th innings when bullpens enter. Both starting pitchers will be on short leashes given their Game 1 performances, and the team that gets better bullpen execution will advance with a 3-2 series lead.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will get his hits and likely drive in runs. The question is whether the Dodgers' lineup can finally wake up and provide Snell with the offensive support he needs. If LA's bats stay quiet, the Blue Jays will steal this pivotal Game 5 on the road.
Predicted Final Score:
Blue Jays 6, Dodgers 5
Guerrero Jr. delivers again, Blue Jays take 3-2 series lead