An Original 20,652-Game Study of Every Stadium's Over/Under Hit Rate, 2017-2025
We studied 20,652 MLB games from 2017 through 2025 using real closing game totals and final scores, then grouped every game by the home team's ballpark. The result runs against everything casual bettors assume about totals. The parks where runs pile up are not where the over cashes, because the market already prices the run environment in, and usually overprices it.
The mirror image is just as sharp. loanDepot Park, home of the Marlins, is a below-average run environment, yet it posted the highest over rate in baseball at 52.5% because sportsbooks set its totals too low (average 7.92). The edge in totals betting is not the park's run environment. It is the gap between that environment and the number the market posts.
Data is original to Best MLB Handicapper, compiled from historical closing totals and box scores. You are welcome to cite this study with a link to this page.
Sorted from highest over rate to lowest. A park above 50.5% has leaned over; below 48.5% has leaned under; the rest are effectively coin flips once you pay the juice.
| Ballpark | Team | Games | Over % | Under % | Avg Total | Avg Runs | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| loanDepot Park | Marlins | 672 | 52.5% | 47.5% | 7.92 | 8.63 | Lean Over |
| Chase Field | Diamondbacks | 687 | 51.5% | 48.5% | 8.83 | 9.53 | Lean Over |
| Angel Stadium | Angels | 680 | 51.5% | 48.5% | 8.71 | 9.27 | Lean Over |
| Tropicana Field | Rays | 695 | 51.0% | 49.0% | 7.96 | 8.27 | Lean Over |
| Nationals Park | Nationals | 692 | 50.8% | 49.2% | 8.67 | 9.44 | Coin Flip |
| PNC Park | Pirates | 679 | 50.8% | 49.2% | 8.37 | 8.82 | Coin Flip |
| Dodger Stadium | Dodgers | 726 | 50.5% | 49.5% | 8.22 | 8.74 | Coin Flip |
| Camden Yards | Orioles | 685 | 50.4% | 49.6% | 9.01 | 9.47 | Coin Flip |
| Globe Life Field | Rangers | 683 | 50.2% | 49.8% | 9.06 | 9.65 | Coin Flip |
| Yankee Stadium | Yankees | 707 | 50.2% | 49.8% | 8.68 | 9.06 | Coin Flip |
| Petco Park | Padres | 690 | 49.7% | 50.3% | 7.92 | 8.25 | Coin Flip |
| Target Field | Twins | 686 | 49.4% | 50.6% | 8.69 | 9.32 | Coin Flip |
| Rogers Centre | Blue Jays | 675 | 49.4% | 50.6% | 8.82 | 9.27 | Coin Flip |
| Fenway Park | Red Sox | 693 | 49.3% | 50.7% | 9.34 | 9.98 | Coin Flip |
| Oakland Coliseum | Athletics | 685 | 49.3% | 50.7% | 8.48 | 8.84 | Coin Flip |
| American Family Field | Brewers | 693 | 48.9% | 51.1% | 8.42 | 8.71 | Coin Flip |
| Daikin Park | Astros | 728 | 48.8% | 51.2% | 8.36 | 8.75 | Coin Flip |
| Busch Stadium | Cardinals | 681 | 48.3% | 51.7% | 8.32 | 8.51 | Coin Flip |
| Citizens Bank Park | Phillies | 698 | 48.3% | 51.7% | 8.62 | 9.26 | Coin Flip |
| Kauffman Stadium | Royals | 680 | 48.3% | 51.7% | 8.92 | 9.19 | Coin Flip |
| Citi Field | Mets | 685 | 48.2% | 51.8% | 7.99 | 8.44 | Coin Flip |
| Comerica Park | Tigers | 677 | 47.9% | 52.1% | 8.6 | 8.99 | Lean Under |
| Great American Ball Park | Reds | 676 | 47.7% | 52.3% | 9.18 | 9.6 | Lean Under |
| T-Mobile Park | Mariners | 673 | 47.7% | 52.3% | 8.02 | 8.24 | Lean Under |
| Truist Park | Braves | 701 | 47.7% | 52.3% | 8.77 | 9.24 | Lean Under |
| Rate Field | White Sox | 679 | 47.4% | 52.6% | 8.66 | 8.96 | Lean Under |
| Wrigley Field | Cubs | 690 | 47.2% | 52.8% | 8.53 | 8.87 | Lean Under |
| Oracle Park | Giants | 684 | 47.0% | 53.0% | 7.83 | 8.3 | Lean Under |
| Coors Field | Rockies | 679 | 46.9% | 53.1% | 11.29 | 11.4 | Lean Under |
| Progressive Field | Guardians | 693 | 46.9% | 53.1% | 8.35 | 8.48 | Lean Under |
Coors Field and Great American Ball Park are the two most famous hitter's parks in baseball. Both leaned under in this sample (Coors 46.9% over, Great American 47.7% over). The public hammers overs at these parks, the books know it, and the totals get pushed high enough that the under is the value side more often than not.
The highest over rates in the study came from parks the market treats as pitcher-friendly and prices low. When a total sits at 7.92 in a park that actually averages 8.63 runs, the over has quiet value that reputation-based bettors never look for.
The majority of parks land between 48.5% and 50.5% over, meaning the ballpark alone is not an edge at those stadiums. There, the edge is line shopping and matchup work, not the venue. Park-driven totals value concentrates at the extremes, in both directions.
Over/under hit rate tells you how the market has priced a park. Park factors tell you why. Read them together: our Baseball Savant Park Factors 2026 guide breaks down the runs, home run, and strikeout index for all 30 stadiums, so you can separate a real run environment from a mispriced number.
From 20,652 games between 2017 and 2025, loanDepot Park (Marlins) had the highest over rate at 52.5%. It is not a classic hitter's park, but the market sets its totals low (average 7.92), so overs cashed more often than anywhere else.
No. Despite being baseball's most hitter-friendly park, Coors Field's over hit only 46.9% of the time over 679 games. The market prices Coors totals extremely high (average 11.29 runs), so the under actually cashed more often than the over.
Across all 20,652 games in this study, the over hit 49.1% of decisions (pushes excluded). Slightly under 50% because of the vig baked into totals, which is why blindly betting overs loses money long term.
We used real closing game totals and final scores for 20,652 regular and postseason MLB games from 2017 to 2025, the era with complete, non-estimated closing-line data. Each game is grouped by the home team's ballpark. Over means combined runs exceeded the closing total; under means fewer; pushes are excluded from the percentages.