Building a model isn't necessarily for everybody, and we understand that. If that's not the route that you feel you want to go, well, obviously you're not going to be flipping a coin. Well, hopefully not, anyways. So, here are some tips on how to handicap baseball, which, if you don't know what you're doing, can be absolutely brutal due to the long season, crazy streaks and trends, and unparalleled variance.
Baseball is not a sprint, it's a marathon. It's a grueling 162-game season where even the best teams typically lose 65 times a year, at least. It's not just about betting the dominant team that's in first place in the American League East to beat the seller team in the National League. If it was that easy, we'd all be rich. There are so many variables involved that you have to take into account many factors. I'm going to go over some of the most important ones here.
Number one, what have you done for me lately? A team might be in first place, but if they've lost 7 of their last 8 and are averaging 2 runs a game over that span, it might not be the best idea in the world to hop on the train. Look at how the team has performed lately. Don't just look at the standings. Don't just look at the standings.
Number two. Matchups. How has this pitcher done against this team in the past? Did the batters have image on him? Does the pitcher have image? Is this his first time against the team? How has this guy fared historically on the road? What are his last 5 starts? What kind of pitches does he feature and does the team he's going up against strike out a lot? How good is the home team against left-handers? Do they fare better against lefties or righties? Do they play better at day or night? Do their games tend to go over at home or under? Dive into stats and trends.
Now here's where it gets tricky. A lot of factors can be coincidental. Baseball is a numbers game, so they keep track of everything. Since that's the case, you have to be able to differentiate which numbers are coincidental and which actually have meaning. For example, the fact that the Pirates swept the Angels at home back in 2017 has absolutely no bearing on what's going on today. And the fact that the Giants are 11-0 on Wednesdays when the sun is shining against a left-hand pitcher whose last name starts with the letter M. Well, you get where I'm going with this.
Something a lot of people have learned the hard way is you can look at a matchup, and if one guy is absolutely dominating let’s say Pedro Martinez back in his late 1990s form is on the mound but the Red Sox bullpen has been absolutely trash for the last month... well, maybe it’s a good idea to take the 5-inning line.
If the team’s bullpen has been letting the team down, don’t hesitate to jump on a 5-inning line every now and then. I’ve found it hugely beneficial. Bullpens are a massive variance variable. You know, even a good bullpen can come in after a starting pitcher and shit the bed. Bad bullpens? It’s hard to win games when you have a bad bullpen.
As a matter of fact, one of the angles that I've seen in the past is fading teams with a tired bullpen. Let’s say the starter got knocked out in the first inning the night before, and the bullpen was asked to carry the load for nine innings might be a good time to look at the opposition in that one.
People underestimate the importance of bullpen. That San Francisco Giants dynasty wasn’t the flashiest team of all time, but one thing that was consistent was their pitching. Jeremy Affeldt, Javier Lopez, Santiago Casilla, and Sergio Romo were absolutely dominant throughout that run, and it’s one of the main reasons the Giants won three World Series.
I don't want to write a novel here, I just wanted to throw out some tips. But I know advanced stats and sabermetrics aren't for everybody either. Still, don’t be afraid to dive in a little bit. Look at some of the more interesting ones, like WAR, FIP, and xERA. There’s so many, but some of this stuff is actually really interesting and it matters. It makes sense.
Because statistics that baseball keeps, there’s a certain element of variance and luck baked into them. For example, a pitcher could be out there giving up 400-foot outs the team’s teeing off on him and he’s just getting kind of lucky. But that’s not sustainable. So if you have that information in your back pocket, it’s another variable in the equation that you can use to your advantage.